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National Bank of Ukraine predicts growth of labour migration from Ukraine


According to the Head of the Department of Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Serhiy Nikolaichuk, the labour migration from Ukraine will continue to grow for another 2-3 years but will begin to decline in the medium term.

 “In the short term, we predict that emigration will continue to grow, but in the medium term it is expected some convergence of wage levels and productivity that will help to calm the situation,” he said.

“Indeed, we see that the number of people willing to go to work abroad is increasing, and this assessment is justified and in line with our expectations. We note a significant difference between the level of wages in Ukraine and Poland,” said Nikolaichuk.

“Three years ago, most of the migrants were the inhabitants of the Western part of Ukraine, whereas now a significant part of migrants are from the Eastern part of Ukraine”, – said the Head of the Department of the NBU.

Nikolaychuk also acknowledged that emigration gave rise to gaps in the Ukrainian labor market.

“The theme of migrants is a serious cause for concern because, at this scale that we are seeing now, it will definitely affect our potential GDP”, – he said.

“We felt that for the last 2 years migration has led to a reduction in our workforce by 5-8%, if not on a permanent basis, but still. Previously, we estimated a reduction of 3-4%, so the revision of the estimate is highly significant,” said Nikolaichuk.

“The impact on potential GDP is quite high, especially considering the fact that leave most able-bodied citizens. A significant number – about 70% are men. In terms of age, about 35% are the immigrants up to 30 years old, and it has become a trend. A few years ago the number of young immigrants was much lower,” – said the representative of the NBU.

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